Least likely candidate theory

This is a tough one to explain so just try not to discount it too quickly. I've been tossing this around in my head for upwards of 6 years. The bugs in the theory haven't been worked out but let me do my best to plant the seed and you can kick it around and see how it applies to your own life. While working at a big box electronics retailer I was able to accurately (100%) predict the supervisory promotions based on who I felt would be the biggest laughing stock, the laziest, and most disconnected from the department. The least likely candidate. This happens consistently at larger companies where no one really cares that much. Why this occurs is a laundry list of shoulder shrug guesses. Usually it is based on friendships or the amount of smoke they're blowing up someones ass. It can also be the result of my own hindsight bias. Look at some supervisors or managers and consider what led them to their current position. Then look at potential positions that are open and think it over.